A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
