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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still